And from there it' went off, right? Snowballed into a Faust with Robert Gauss prints himself vessel in Oregon and after that they're trying to do this in Barkof. If you donate kind of you know probability this physics you've heard these names before. All of this was generated basically by swarthy French people trying to comp each other out of money.
So from very humble kind of skeevy beginnings, we get whole range of [INAUDIBLE] right? I also have friends horse racing. And you might also think about this. Is the actual sport, cruelty to animals Oncasinogames Canada? There hasn't been [INAUDIBLE] past in the history of this happen I think if you were to get rid of the whole thing, unfortunately, that would put a lot of people out of work, out of business. This sport that we've had for centuries would go away, essentially. But lets just forget all of it. So this is from, The Ugly Truth About Horse Racing, Written by Fernando Cohen in The Atlantic, March 2014. This is a recent article and basically a response from PETA, listing a reform about horse racing. And it is an issue, not that I would say it's not or anything. However, this reform is on the way. Anyone point out when the racing form? Wednesday's edition, it's kind of about, not just past performances, as we what say, but also news as well. This guy from New York actually was found that he was his horses and he has got a lifetime ban You know, for what it's worth. So it's not that, you know, we're trying to avoid this issue. They do take it very seriously. And they're starting to do more. With devotion for horserace integrity. [COUGH] They've kind of, right now I just want you to fill this form racing. Paragraph at 115. Really trying to make sure that the sport is fair, also it would be the first kind of national body to regulate doping and testing the horses as well as making sure horse abuse doesn't happen. because quite frankly, these are beautiful mammals and they shouldn't be abused. So, if you want to know more about that, Coalition for Horse Racing Integrity, I make no bones about the good and the bad here, honestly since it is such a large institution, so old right, and this goes back hundreds and hundreds of years, I feel like needs to happen I can't just let this whole thing go. So onto more kind of base concerns, right, am I going to tell you how to win? And like any good academic, I'm not going to answer that with a solid, definitive yes. I have to say no and qualify what I will be sharing with you a little bit, right. So One rule, only one rule. I'll be talking about trends. These are some things I've noticed over kind of my few years of doing this. I've also kind of picked up some leads from reading different books, listening to different columnists and as well. And then also some variables. Right it's been kind of said in the culture [INAUDIBLE] I think that each course in one race, even kind of taking into account 100 different variables, we'll have an accurate model to predict what happens in the end. So obviously [INAUDIBLE] right, what we'll talk about today are the ones that I think have So, you might say okay well, gotta win, but is gambling worse? Obviously yes, it is very risky that's why it's called gambling and not investing. [LAUGH] And quite frankly I don't know why we talk to people given college students or Administrators or college instructors, so none of us have any money. >> [LAUGH] >> So we gotta take that into >> [LAUGH] >> But from this idea that gambling is risky, I'm giving you the only rule when it comes to gambling, okay.
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If I can get started, just because I know Robert has a lot of really amazing information. I got a sneak peak at his PowerPoints. Perks of being the coordinator. >> [LAUGH] >> So I just want to make sure he has enough time, he does have a class after this so I don't want him to be too late to this next batch of students.
So for those of you who don't know me, my name is Erin Harwood and I'm a staff coordinator and also the person who is coordinating all these staff seminar series. Before we get to Robert, I just want to give a little plug for our very last pod of the quarter, which will be on Friday December 4th, which is the last Friday of the quarter. And it will be from psychology, and she'll be talking about relationships between children and pets, and then how does that influence their development. And then how does that play into the cycle of abuse that you can see sometimes in some families and in some communities? So I'm excited about, everyone has so far has been so amazing. So I've learned something from every single one, and it's been really great. So I'm excited for this one, and I'm particularly excited too for Robert's. When he first made the proposal to me, I think it was before Fall quarter started, and he and I hadn't even met face to face, I immediately was like, Yes! [LAUGH] Jen, who shares office space with me, she probably even heard me say that. This is such a cool idea. And so I was really excited to have Robert come today, and be able to share some information with us. And a little bit about the math behind all of this as well. For horse racing and betting, and then how exactly does the system for handicapping horse races work as well. I will turn it over to Robert. [INAUDIBLE] [LAUGH]. All right. >> All right. So, before I begin, I have to kind of plug, two of my students got second and third place in [INAUDIBLE]. So I'm pretty bad with [INAUDIBLE]. [LAUGH] Just to be clear about that. [INAUDIBLE]. So I'm just going to save you the trouble. So just a tiny little bit. We'll be talking about [INAUDIBLE] horse raes, with lessons in the stock market, we need a little bit of medicine with our sugar today. Make sure this is not that big for [INAUDIBLE]. That's [INAUDIBLE]. Okay, is that better for [INAUDIBLE]? So horse racing, right? I say the words, and I think we all feel a little skeeved out. We all kind of get a little ew. Why do we talk about this in the first place? And in general gambling as well. So gambling is actually kind of the genesis of almost all of the probability in statistics. It started with the 17th century mathematician Ardano. There's a lot of awesome cool stories Nafta rules or all these other great people. Now later on, I noticed this, Perdonis was the first to actually find what are called theoretical probabilities. Now empirical bonds. And he did it mainly by this annotated. From there, Pascale had some great back and forth, some letters that he sent to one-another to try and solve, basically, roulette, another kind of dice game as well. They really kind of tried to figure out what's the mathematical conflict >> Have here. Or however you want to say that name, also hits more as well. Really talked about the gambling itself, okay. From these period modest beginnings, kind of put that idea some probability from gambling kind of what else can we do with these? You wanna be vegan? Tequila! I got a veggie burger Life's good. I'm gonna eat it with the knife right in it. I'm such an idiot. Don't judge us.
It was open bar at the wedding, so we still might be a little drunk and by might be...I mean we are. Time to go walk it off at the Manuel Antonio National Park. It's just a few minutes down the road from the hostel and costs $16 to get in. The path was so easy your grandma could do it. and there was wild life everywhere. He's digging for nuts. They seem to like these. I don't know what it is. I like these monkeys better than the ones in Thailand. They're nicer. They never once showed me their fangs or tried to steal my camera. And they let me get as close as I wanted. And obviously, don't feed or touch the wild life. But if they're following you around, there's not much you can do about it. These raccoons were super thirsty and they were smart enough to know we had a water bottle. They were also being supervised by a nearby tour guide. New friend. So we were safe. But seriously, don't feed or touch them. Not only is it against park rules, but if one of them bits you, you're going to be spending your vacation in the emergency room getting rabies shots. It's like 100 degrees. They're thirsty. That was awesome. Now I can't drink this though. We've gotta be quiet. We just found a sloth. I don't know why I was nervous about being loud. He was 200 feet up in a tree and not moving at all. He wasn't going anywhere. At the end of the jungle path you come down to Gemelas Beach. We've got the whole damn beach to ourselves. Well, besides the Iguanas and hermit crabs. They're everywhere. After a few hours in the park we headed over to Alta Mar. It's just down the street from our hostel and has a view of the ocean. I got rice and vegetables for $6.88 Plantains It was our last day here and we wanted to spend it on the beach. I went back to my favorite tree and before I knew it, it was time for dinner. Emelio's Cafe. People were literally lined up back to the door to watch the flamenco dancing. They were great. It's not super cheap here, but the entertainment is worth it. And the vegetable curry was delicious. We got a cab back to the beach for $3. We're doing a beach bonfire. $1 beers, beach bonfire...not a bad way to end the episode. Tomorrow morning Jira and I are headed up to the Monteverde Cloud Forest. So make sure to check out that episode. And as always, remember. You can do this too. And now do it again. Because...yeah do it again now. Cheers! Oh my god you have to do it again because it keeps focusing. Alright do it again. I think we need to be right where you are Now you're perfect. Yeah? Cheers! Cheers! Cheers! Costa Rica baby! Cheers! Costa Rica baby! Do it again. Cheers! Cheers! Costa Rica baby! |
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